Q. I've been working on a big project for a long time.

Although I try to move ahead every day, sometimes I have to

force myself to accomplish even a small task. When I skip a

day, I feel guilty.  How can I stay motivated?"

A. When you're working on a book, job search, business

start-up, dissertation, or special project, you can feel

consumed by the project. And often you feel as though you

can't afford to take a break, let alone a day off.

I once heard a writer say, "Sometimes I'm really productive.

I write five pages on my book! Then the next day I'm

drained.  So I review what I've written or organize my

research files."

I agree!  I resist taking a day off to read a new mystery,

go for a hike, visit an art museum, or watch a season of an

HBO series on DVD.  But the next day, invariably, I wake up

eager to work. And I accomplish everything I need to do, and

more.

Frankly, I've never found staring at a blank screen (or

paper, in the old days) does much good. Resistance means,

"Time for a change of pace!"

These beliefs are supported by scientific evidence.

Psychologists who study these up-and-down activity blips

have found a certain randomness operates in human

productivity levels.

For example, an employee "Bill" varied his arrival time at

work. When Bill was late, his boss yelled at him. When Bill

was on time, the boss offered praise.

Sure enough, Bill responded. The day after the boss yelled,

Bill was on time. And the day after the reward, Bill slacked

off and arrived late. So, concluded the boss, praise doesn't

work.

There was only one problem. A computer demonstrated that

Bill's arrival times showed a pattern of random variation.

In fact, the computer could predict quite accurately how

Bill would perform - with or without praise and blame.

The same pattern has been found among students: some days

you learn faster while other days you just don't get it. And

some days you're productive and efficient, while other days

you're sluggish.

If you've studied statistics, you're probably guessed that

we're talking about regression to the mean, which is very

powerful. People usually have an average level of

productivity. When they work hard one day, they tend to slow

down the next.

So here's an exercise.  Suppose you have a writing project.

You set a goal: write 500 words a day. For other projects,

find a daily activity level that's easy to observe and

measure.

For the next 30 days, track how many words you write (or how

productive you are in the task you've chosen). Some days

you'll write 1000 words, other days none, with lots of

variation.  Each day just record your word count, without

judging your output.  At the end of 30 days, calculate an

average. And calculate again after 60 days.

You may find that your natural average is 300 words a day.

You can lower your daily goals - or recognize that you work

best with your random pattern.

Obviously, if you have a deadline, you may have to increase

your output. Professional writers typically write 1000-3000

words a day.

But if you're making acceptable progress toward a goal, you

can begin to understand, accept and work with your natural

rhythm.  Regardless, beating yourself up and feeling guilty

won't work.  If you're constantly falling behind, maybe it's

time for a change of career - a chance to enjoy marching

your life to a new beat.